Adaptation (2)

Impacts and Issues

The types and amounts of adaptations required-or possible-will depend on the amount of climate change that occurs. The more effective mitigation efforts, the less adaptation, and failed adaptation will occur. Also, the pattern of impacts and therefore of demands on adaptation will be patchy.

Tundra, boreal (northern-type) forests, and mountain and Mediterranean ecosystems will be highly vulnerable, as will mangroves and salt marshes along coasts. Low-lying coasts will be more vulnerable than steep coasts, and water resources will be more endangered in mid-latitude and dry tropical regions due to lessened rainfall and increased evaporation. Agriculture will be at risk in tropical regions.

Africa, the Arctic, small islands, and large Asian river deltas are the areas most at risk from climate change. As a rule, adaptation costs money. Therefore, wealthier nations would be better able to adapt even if they were facing equally grave impacts from climate change-but they are not.

Impacts are likely to be much more severe in the developing countries that are less equipped to adapt to them. For example, by 2100, developing countries stand to lose about 10 times more land area to rising sea levels than developed countries, with four million people likely displaced versus a few hundred thousand, at most, in the developed countries.

Uncertainties about what climate change will occur makes planned adaptation more difficult, though there are many measures (called no-regrets measures) that carry benefits regardless of how much climate change occurs. For example, increased wild lands conservation will reduce species extinctions under any future climate scenario.

Evaluation of which planned adaptations will be worth their cost depends sensitively on estimates of the social cost of carbon, that is, the total amount of future economic harm that will be caused by each ton of carbon (or equivalent amount of another greenhouse gas) emitted to the atmosphere. Calculation of this value is notoriously elusive and values-laden.

The willingness or ability of governments to respond to threats that act on time-scales much greater than the election cycles or a ruler’s personal lifespan also threaten timely and effective mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. “Primary Source Connection Local” ecosystems and the safety of human populations are put at risk as humans modify the environment around them.

Local and national governments can minimize these effects by implementing adaptation responses. An adaptation response is a plan that addresses foreseeable environmental issues. Examples of adaptation responses include forest management, flood control, and habitat preservation and restoration.

“The European Environment Agency (EEA)” is an agency of the European Union devoted to monitoring the environment in Europe and promoting sustainable development. The “EEA” has 32 member countries and six cooperating countries.

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

As a region of industrialized nations, Europe has a strong commitment to mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, numerous scientific studies, and the considerable losses resulting from extreme weather events over recent years . . . demonstrated the vulnerability of Europe’s natural environment and its society to projected climate change impacts.

There is growing recognition that Europe should adapt to such impacts in order to maintain sustainable functioning of ecosystems and wellbeing of its population. Many “EEA” member countries have started to adjust their overall national climate policy framework to include climate change adaptation as an equally important component as mitigation.

A wide range of adaptation responses have been initiated at varying governmental levels and in different sectors. . . .

Maintaining the health of Europe’s ecosystems

To address the wide ranging adverse impacts of climate change to Europe’s terrestrial ecosystems, a variety of measures have been initiated or are being planned. This is often carried out in the context of nature conservation and sustainable resource management rather than deliberately directed at adapting to climate change.

Liechtenstein is highly dependent on the stability of its ecosystems as it is a mountainous country. This has strongly motivated the introduction of an active national climate policy and the participation of the country in international processes, such as the “Alpine Convention.”

Strategies to address climate change as a new risk are largely of a regulatory nature and are all designed primarily to address the issues related to sustainability, i.e., by introducing sector-oriented legal documents, such as the “Nature and Landscape Protection Act” (1996); the “Forest Act” (1991); the “Preservation and Protection of Agricultural Lands Act” (1992); the “Ordinance on the integrated rehabilitation of the Alpine and mountain regions” (1968) and the revised “Tourism Act” (2000).

In France, forest managers have been working on measures to improve the resilience of forests since the storms of December 1999 and the drought conditions associated with the 2003 heat wave. It is considered most important to develop a larger biodiversity among forest stands with more diverse varieties and through more genetic diversification.

It is also necessary to install or regenerate species which are better adapted to present and future local conditions, so that they are more resilient to biotic and abiotic environmental conditions.

Tools are being elaborated in order to improve the choice of species. More dynamic forest management practices with wider spacing and strong and early thinning can reduce vulnerability to wind storms and at the same time improve the water budget and therefore resistance to drought conditions. Better forest management practices and the presence of understory vegetation increases biodiversity and soil protection improves recycling of mineral elements and reduces mineral leaching.

Development of heating plants or district heating using wood has been proposed in order to mitigate climate change. This would also help to utilize forest residues after storms and decrease the regeneration cost of damaged forests.

As a means to implement the “Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC,” the “German Federal Nature Conservation Act” (of 25 March 2002) states that the Federal Laender shall establish a network of interlinked biotopes covering at least 10% of the total area of each Federal Land.

The required core areas connecting areas and connecting elements shall be legally secured via the designation of appropriate areas, detailed planning in accordance with the provisions of planning law, long-term arrangements (contractual nature conservation), or other appropriate measures.

This is intended to safeguard an interlinked network of biotopes in a sustainable fashion. Such a network of interlinked biotopes is particularly important and represents a dynamic response of ecosystems to global change to protect biodiversity. In their national communications, many countries reported their concerns over issues such as goods and services of terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., timber production, biodiversity etc.) that may be threatened under a changing climate. But very few countries go beyond the list of general adaptation options for forest management and biodiversity protection.

Emerging from this is the inadequacy of knowledge on potential impacts in terrestrial ecosystems and practical guidance for adaptation. In addition, some multi lateral initiatives have been taken in order to establish a stronger (i.e., ‘climatically robust’) network of ecological areas within Europe. An example of such an initiative is the “Pan-European Ecological Network (PEEN).”

Managing Europe’s water resources

Rising temperature and changing rainfall patterns are expected to change the availability of water resources in Europe. The integrated management plans for water resources in Spain constitute one component for adaptation to climate change. “The National Water Plan, Law 10/2001 of 5 July (Analysis of Water Systems)” accounts for potential climate change induced reduction in water availability and analyses the effect of these reductions on management and planning. Drought mitigation has been recognized as a national priority for Hungary. The improvement of drought forecast, for example, through development of reliable drought indices is recommended as an important adaptation measure. A national drought mitigation strategy is to be developed.

In Greece, an integrated water management plan is considered imperative to address the present day problem of low water use efficiency, which results from the combination of irrigation and cultivation practices.

The preparation for the full implementation of this plan has started. Cross governmental departments have drafted a legislative framework for its implementation. In the Netherlands, climate change and adaptation measures are explicitly integrated into the water policy agenda.

Emphasis is placed on ‘no-regret’ strategies. Although flood risks seem to dominate the adaptation agenda in water policy, the increased risk of dry spells and water shortage are also recognized. The spatial implications of the Cabinet’s position on water management and the associated adaptation measures have been incorporated in the Dutch Spatial Policy. Inclusion in the policy for Rural Areas offers an opportunity to combine the implementation of measures in rural areas for increased safety and flood prevention with measures for such objectives as improving water quality, combating dropping water-tables, reconstructing rural areas, and improving the ecological infrastructure.

Organizations involved in providing water services also started to explore the implications of climate change in terms of vulnerability and options for adaptation. “The Norwegian Water Resources” and “Energy Directorate” is an example. In the United Kingdom, organizations in the water resources sector are also taking actions to prepare for a changing climate.

Protecting people and infrastructure from coastal and river floods

Coastal and low-lying areas constitute a substantial part of Europe. With changing rainfall pattern (including extremes) and global warming induced sea level rise, a number of countries will be facing increased risk of coastal and river flooding. Benefiting from the long tradition of dealing with extreme weather events, flood defense is among the areas with best developed adaptive measures.

Policies, guidance documents, regulations, and even concrete technical adaptation actions have been developed at the EU, national, and sub-national levels. Some of these measures are not deliberately designed for adaptation to long-term climate change impacts, though. Instead, they are developed for addressing short-term extremes. At EU level, a flood prevention and management action plan is being developed.

EU Environment Ministers asked the European Commission to table a formal proposal for the plan, which will be based on solidarity and will make provision for an early warning system, integrated flood basin and flooding management plans and the development of flood risk maps. The plan includes a possible future Floods Directive.

At national level, many northern and western European countries have national flood management policies and guidelines. Integrating new information on climate change and its potential impacts, such policies and guidelines are being reviewed and adjusted periodically.

In the United Kingdom, the trauma of human misery and property loss caused by the 1953 coastal flooding alerted the Government to the potential dangers. A radical rethinking led to major new flood defense infrastructure being built and eventually the commissioning of the “Thames Barrier” in 1987. The first major “IPCC Assessment” (1991) led to changed approaches to coastal planning throughout the United Kingdom. This has incorporated an allowance for climate change and sea level rise built into all new coastal flooding infrastructures. “Planning Policy Guidance 25,” published by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM, 2001), takes a precautionary approach to managing development and flood risk. It aims to direct new development away from areas at highest risk of flooding and takes account of climate change. . . .

In the Netherlands, criteria and boundary conditions for the safety features of all dykes and other protection infrastructure are periodically updated to incorporate the available information on climate change and other environmental changes.

The “Dutch coastal policy plan” (3rd Coastal Policy, 2000) strongly emphasizes the new challenges caused by climate change, especially sea level rise and an increase in the number of storms. Various national and sub-national policy plans like the “Dutch Spatial Policy” (Ministry of Housing, 2004) and the “Water Policy Plan 21^st Century” (Nota Waterbeleid 21^steeeuw) (Ministry of Transport, 2000) recognize the need for adaptation in water management and coastal zone management.

An example of an adaptation action for rivers is in Hengelo, where the peak flow of the Woolderbinnenbeek can be reduced by 60%, to prevent the downstream agricultural land and town centres from getting flooded.

technical_report_2005_1207_144937 (accessed February 26, 2013)

Coastal Populations; Coastlines, Changing; Economics of Climate Change; Energy Efficiency; Extinction; IPCC Climate Change 2007 Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Lifestyle Changes; Refugees and Displacement; Social Cost of Carbon (SCC).

B I B L I O G R A P H Y

Books:

Parry, M. L., et al, eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

Periodicals:

Davis, Margaret B., et al. ‘‘Range Shifts and Adaptive Responses to Quaternary Climate Change.’’ Science

292 (2001): 673–679.

de Menocal, Peter B., et al. ‘‘Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene.’’ Science 292 (2001): 667–674.

Giles, Jim. ‘‘How to Survive a Warming World.’’ Nature 446 (2007): 716–717.

Kabat, Pavel, et al. ‘‘Climate Proofing the Netherlands.’’

Nature 438 (2005): 283–284.

Parmesan, Camille, and Gary Yohe. ‘‘A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems.’’ Nature 421 (2003): 37-42.

Revkin, Andrew C. ‘‘Aid to Help Asia and Africa with Effects of Warming.’’ The New York Times (August 9, 2007).

Web Sites:

‘‘China Now No. 1 in CO2 Emissions; USA in Second Position.’’ Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, June 22, 2007.

http://www.mnp.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/moreinfo/Chinanowno1inCO2emissionsUSAinsecondposition.html (accessed February 26, 2013).

‘‘Strategies for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise.’’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Response Strategies Working Group, Coastal Systems Subgroup, 1990.

http://ccir.ciesin.columbia.edu/nyc/links_impacts_coastal.html (accessed February 27, 2013).